Today's Musical Selection: "Ana Ng" by They Might Be Giants
Hi, everybody! Well, I'm still talking to myself (see yesterday's post), but one internal monologue is more than enough, I'm sure. Instead, today I'll share with you some of my non-DC-baseball-related musings. In other words, it's potpourri day! And it's not even Friday! Wow!
While I've been off dancing with Fred Malek and Linda Cropp, my beloved Brewers have, fairly quietly, been assembling a solid team. The Crew sent their closer, Danny Kolb, to Atlanta for the Braves' top pitching prospect, Jose Capellan. Then they engineered a mega-deal with the White Sox, acquiring slugging outfielder Carlos Lee in exchange for center fielder Scott Podsednik, reliever Luis Vizcaino and a minor leaguer. And most recently, they shipped infielder Keith Ginter to Oakland for reliever Justin Lehr and stud minor-league outfielder Nelson Cruz.
My analysis of all three deals:
- The Kolb deal is exactly the kind of bold thinking a small-market club needs, and the kind we've seen ever since Doug Melvin became GM. Dean Taylor wouldn't have made this trade. And God knows Sal Bando never would have made it.
Melvin has figured out one of Billy Beane's tenets in Oakland: There are few things in baseball more overrated or overpriced than an "experienced closer." At any given time, there are maybe a half-dozen truly bankable closers in baseball. If you have one of those guys, you pay to keep him if you can. But if you don't have one of those half-dozen bankable closers, just go find some guy off the junk heap or elevate a middle reliever. Teams that pay $5 million for middle-echelon closers are insane. It's a waste of money.
And if your team is not a contender and you overpay for the Jose Mesas and the Ugueth Urbinas, you're doubly insane. If you figure to win 75 games or fewer, what difference does it make if your closer has 20 saves or 25? Remember when Bryan Harvey saved 45 games for a 61-win Marlins team in '93? The Marlins kept him instead of dealing him, and two years later he blew out his arm and was out of baseball. What a waste.
Now, for about a full season (the second half of '03 and the first half of '04), Danny Kolb was ungodly good. He posted some of the best stats by a closer in all of baseball. However, in the second half of '04 he showed signs of fatigue and arm trouble and just plain mortality. Melvin took one look at these numbers and at his 68-win team from '04, and wisely decided to sell high. The Braves, who are supposedly one of the smart teams, decided they had to have Kolb, even at the cost of a crown jewel of the farm system. Now, I'll grant, if Kolb's first-half form returns, the Braves have a terrific closer, which as a playoff contender they can actually use. If the second-half Kolb stays around, however, the Braves got hosed. Either way, the Brewers wind up with a player they have a lot more use for than Kolb.
My only concern: The Braves didn't get where they are by trading away great pitching prospects. Almost all the pitchers they've traded away later fizzled. The last great pitcher we acquired from their system was Ruben Quevedo. Remember him? My point exactly.
- I'm still giggling over the Lee trade. This deal made very little splash, but Carlos Lee just might be the best player you've never heard of. Lee is 27 and is a consistent .290-.300 hitter with 25-30 homer power. The man is a stud, and healthy too... ever since his rookie year, he's never played less than 140 games in a season. The guy is steady, and he's a monster. Meanwhile, Podsednik is 30 (yeah, he was a Rookie of the Year candidate last year, but he was an old rookie), he slumped badly last season, and he has zero power. I like the kid, and he's got a ton of speed, but if I have to pick between speed and power, I'll take power. Vizcaino is a decent but very streaky middle reliever, a dime-a-dozen kind of player.
Attention White Sox fans: Weaver's Whammy has struck again! Just when you were on the verge of building a winner, you trade away one of the backbones of your offense. Magglio Ordonez is only marginally better than Lee, plus he's a cripple, and yet everyone thinks Ordonez is a huge prize and ignores Lee. What's the matter with the White Sox, anyway? They share the third-largest market in America with a team that has made a cult art out of losing. They play in the weakest division in the major leagues. By all rights, they should be winning 90 to 95 games a year. But they're fascinated by big names and never bother to hang on to the lesser lights that would win pennant, or develop a consistent theory of team building. ChiSox fans... where's the joy in it for you? Every season is basically a waiting game to see when your GM is going to make the trade that will be the bullet in your brain. (Of course, at least you have a team... wait, I said I wasn't going to talk about that.)
- The Ginter deal is less of an obvious robbery, as Ginter's a useful player with a steady bat. But Lehr is a potentially useful reliever with a plus fastball, and everything I've heard about Cruz makes me drool. Who could have imagined, when Ginter was a late throw-in in the Mark Loretta deal, that Ginter would bring this much return? It's a good trade for depth, which is a welcome new idea around this club.
For once, the Brewers are making real trades, and smart ones, too, not fire-sale trades or speculative gambles. The Lee acquisition proves that the new ownership is actually willing to spend a little cash. It's enough to make a guy giddy. Of course, the whole you-know-what mess is clouding my feelings for Major League Baseball in general, but I'm grateful to see the Brew Crew actually trying.
I suspect that they started this because they heard they might lose me as a fan. You know how people who are dumped by their significant others often lose weight, dress better and generally get their acts in gear? So it is with the Brewers and me. They don't want to lose their one fan with no actual connection to the Milwaukee area. I appreciate the effort, guys. And the way things are going, you and I will be back together in 2005. If I catch you next September sitting on the couch munching potato chips, though, words will be exchanged.
Yesterday, while driving home, I saw one of those great only-in-Washington traffic maneuvers. A gentleman in front of me, driving a luxury car, executed an illegal U-turn. On a red light. From the center lane. In front of a police officer. In a marked car. There are bad and crazy drivers all over this country, but only a Washington driver would have the sheer unmitigated nerve to bang an illegal U from the wrong lane in front of a cop. Like me, the cop was at first too stunned to react. Then, finally, he turned around and went after the guy. That combination of self-importance, disregard for others and complete indifference to the rules of the road... pure Washington, all the way.
Finally, some bad news amongst the blogging community: My man Frinklin gets to observe his Christmas by getting laid off. Go on over to his blog and tell him to hang in there, would you? He's a good guy who deserves better. And I'm sure he'd do the same for you.
Anyway, that's it for me today. See you tomorrow!
Posted by Fred at December 16, 2004 01:57 PM